| NCHA Open Futurity. Rays Top Twenty | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Now I have to make a confession here folks. In my younger years I was quite partial to having a little punt on the GIGIs. As far as I was concerned there was nothing better than waking up on a Saturday morning, grabbing the form guide and picking out about half a dozen or so bets for the day. Feeling well, a little dry in the mouth, slightly light headed, at times maybe a bit of a pain in the cranial region, I'd listen to Johnny Tapp on the sky channel then sift through the guide, then dip into my TAB account. Now I'm not going to say I was the best punter in the world, if I was well I'd be riding cutting horses rather than writing about them. But to cut a long story short, one day I made the decision to put $100 in my account and when that dwindled away I would say good bye to the punt forever. It took me about a year to dwindle that money away, so I guess you could say I was just a tad below par when it came to picking winners. Now here I sit on the eve of the 2010 NCHA futurity looking at the draws. I'm thinking to myself if I was to try to pick the top twenty in this years field of 137 horses how would I do it? Now if I was a betting man, who I am not, I wouldn't even try, because unless you are really in the know you NEVER bet on a maiden. So lets throw Rays rule book on punting out the window(not that it was that flash in the first place) and see how I go at picking this years Twenty finalists. Right 137 narrowed down to twenty. If I were to pick by the sire of these horses here is my dilemma. In the field there are 26 horses sired by Peptos Stylish Oak , 15 by Dual Jazz, 8 by Bank Fulo Cdees, 7 Who's Top Cats, 6 by Commanchie Shorty, 5 apiece for Racketeer Cat and Acres Destiny, 3 apiece for Catmandee, Instant Dulce, Introcatolena, Oak So Smart, One Moore Playboy and Seligman Spin. 2 apiece for Bar Doc Hickory, Cat Silver, Dual Rey, Little Smarty Oak, Playboy Hefner, Smart Little Diablo. Dmac Daddy and The Little Red Rooster. Then the rest have one offspring each, Blackburn Junior, Blue Duck Okie, Bobby Bo Lena, Cat Ichi, Catskills, CD Olenas Dually, Clover Class Action, Dualin Gun, Eskdale West Rooster, Highbrows Doctor, Kit Dual, Lectro Lena San, Lethal Lena, Light Of Rey, Oaks Jackhammer, Oaks Spinifex, One Moore Senor, Pepto Style N Spin, Playboy Roy, Play To Spin, Royal Fletch, Rum N Oak, Smart Little Scotty, Sonitas Rondo, Special Oak, Spinis Roc Star, Tanyas Freckles and Winderadeen Get Shorty. PHEW!. That's a total of fifty sires to sift through….. Nah too complicated. OK there's a saying being bandied around “Breed the best to the best to get the best”. And of course those who have entered their horses in this event have probably already done that. That was some three or four years ago. So now we have to take a close look at the external factors that go into achieving success with that well bred pony. One of the little rules that I followed in my punting days was to follow the jockey. So for this exercise let's change that saying “Breed the best to the best then give them to the best”. OK I'm going to use the jockey to narrow this field down a bit. Let's see what happens when I only use the top twenty money earners as a guide to picking my top twenty. This is what I came up with.
Using the above jockeys I have now narrowed the field to 61. OK OK I can hear you saying now “ Ray are you out your mind! if you used that rule last year, Heath Sinclair wouldn't havc made the top twenty!” I know and I've left out a lot of promising trainers but hey I've got to start somewhere and I don't have all night!. Moving right along ..... “What about the bottom line!” I hear you say. Well I was getting to that! Lets see what's represented in the top twenty all time Dams of money earners. Hmmm two. A horse out of Lady In Red and another out of the mare Winderadeen Pure Elegance. OK they're in my top twenty. Only 18 to go. OK it's getting late so I'm going to stick with the bottom line. If you bred the best to the best, then that best surely would have to be the best money earners. So here we go, what I'll do is just pick the top 18 money earning mares and that will top up my twenty finalists for this years open futurity. Below are the eighteen highest money earning mares who have progeny competing in this years open futurity.
So by using the top twenty money earning riders, combined with the All Time twenty dams of money earners, combined with the above list. My list of this years top twenty is TA DA!!
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| If only it was that simple. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
